Putin rachets up nuclear rhetoric, but is he ready to act?

President Vladimir Putin’s proposed review of Russia’s nuclear doctrine indicates a disturbing willingness to use the ultimate weapon against Ukraine and even NATO allies. But analysts say it’s far from certain that the threat will be carried out.

• The doctrine allows nuclear use against non-nuclear states supported by nuclear powers, like Ukraine
• Western analysts and officials view Putin’s threats as reckless, though some Russians support nuclear strikes

The proposal to expand Russia’s nuclear limits comes as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its third year and Kiev seeks permission from Western allies to use long-range weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia.

Putin has stepped up his rhetoric to try to dissuade Western countries from extending support to Kiev.

But the repeated threats have him pressuring himself to act on the use of nuclear weapons not just against Ukraine, but against NATO supporters.

Maxim Starchuk, a researcher at the Centre for International and Defence Policy at Queen’s University in Canada, said Putin wants to lower the threshold for using nuclear weapons by reviewing doctrine. “Putin expects to see an additional nuclear element introduced to the Ukraine war. He believes this will work and he wants it to happen,” Starchak said.

A senior European military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Putin had limited options two and a half years into the war.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, “Putin went all out. So he has very little ability to escalate,” the official said. He outlined three options available to Putin: using nuclear rhetoric, using nuclear weapons, and hybrid war against the West.

‘Western nuclear response’

Since the invasion, Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons, which the West dismissed as saber-rattling.

But on Wednesday, he went further, announcing a change in the country’s nuclear doctrine during a televised meeting of the Kremlin Security Council.

The updated doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear states if backed by a nuclear power, an apparent nod to Ukraine and its Western backers.

He said the new rules would also allow Russia to trigger a nuclear response in the case of a “large-scale” air strike.

To Pavel Luzin, a visiting scholar at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Putin’s threats still rang hollow. “Russia is desperately looking for ways to make the world fear Russian nuclear weapons again,” he said.

Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said “Ukraine’s retaliatory attack against Russia is causing serious damage, but it could do even more damage if a Russian nuclear response triggers a Western nuclear response.”

The European Union on Thursday condemned Putin’s recent actions as “reckless and irresponsible,” and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken called the Russian president “totally irresponsible.”

‘Questions from people’

Russian military analyst Alexander Kramchikhin said in Moscow that he has not seen any “fundamental changes” in the doctrine and that its wording remains deliberately vague.

The Kremlin’s message is crucial after Ukraine has repeatedly crossed Moscow’s “red lines” with cross-border attacks in the western Kursk region and the mass use of drones against targets deep in Russia.

He noted that Putin is under increasing pressure from the military, politicians and domestic public opinion to use nuclear weapons to win the Ukrainian war.

“I am now constantly hearing questions from ordinary people about why we still don’t use nuclear weapons,” Kramchikhin said.

Since the start of the war, Russian propaganda has been in full swing, even threatening Western capitals with retaliatory nuclear attacks. Sergey Karaganov, a leading political scientist known for his hawkish views, called on Putin to carry out a limited nuclear attack to “save” human civilization.

A Levada Center poll published in July found that 34% of Russians believe the use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine would be justified.

“The most effective means of communication is to elaborate direct military threats against NATO,” said Russia-based political scientist Vasily Kashin. “But at the same time, we must be prepared to respond to these threats.”

“Attacks on facilities in Eastern Europe could be limited,” Kashin said. “This could lead to nuclear escalation.” A protracted conflict would be a dangerous situation.”