El Nino to continue into mid-2024

The El Nino weather phenomenon will last at least through the first half of 2024, according to the latest UN forecasts, with abnormal rainfall due across Latin America raising fears for the agricultural sector.

As the water level at a major river port in Brazil's Amazon rainforest hit its lowest point in at least 121 years on Monday, boats and houseboats are seen stranded at David's Marina Rio Negro River, Brazil on October 16, 2023
El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture

Pacific sea surface temperatures soared in recent months, “with stronger warming along the South American coast,” said the report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN (FAO) accessed by Reuters on Thursday.

Forecasts for the first quarter of 2024 show more rain than usual in southern cone countries such as Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico, alongside ongoing dry conditions in Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname.

The current dry spell in Central America however is set to last only until the end of this year.

The report also stresses that agriculture, which includes crops, livestock, forests, and fishing, is particularly vulnerable given the sector can absorb 26% of economic losses during extreme weather conditions and up to 82% during drought.

Key fish species like anchovies and tuna on the northern coast of Peru and southern Ecuador are particularly at risk, it said.

Ecuadorian fishermen reported a 30% decrease in tuna catching since February, it said.

The El Nino and its opposing La Nina weather patterns have impacted the production of key crops such as wheat, rice, and corn in Latin America, which are highly dependent on raw materials.

Extreme conditions brought on by El Nino are hitting the region but it is also simultaneously facing climate change effects such as heat waves, said the report.

The FAO said it has launched a plan to mobilize financial resources for vulnerable communities in several countries affected by the extreme weather.

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